Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
