A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
